MotoGP 2007 - Melandri

The plot sickens in terms of Marco Melandri's unhappiness with his bikes performance. From being a title threat last year to an also-ran this year is a rather bitter pill to swallow. But at least on the surface its apparent that his bike is nowhere near as competitive as his Honda-riding peers, especially Repsol Honda.

It wouldn't be the first time Honda has kept the cool toys for its main team, while letting everyone else make up numbers.

Training 2007 - Program Selection

I have been giving the program selection some thought, and have decided to go with the second of my two old programs, the one based around CT's block training setup.

This program will be performed 3 days per week, with the other bodyparts set on a maintenance/Max Stimulation style setup.

So the days training will be

Bench Movement
2/3board movement with 3x3 submaximal
Back movement - Max Stim
Quad movement - Max Stim
Hamstring movement - Max Stim

I may add in some calf/bicep work, but that will depend on how I feel. The Tuesday/Thursday off days will include some form of cardio if I feel up to it, otherwise its the diet that will take care of any fat losses.

Technique on bench requires a little work as well, and I want to take the width of the grip out slightly, so I am increasing it by a finger width on each side, or around an inch overall. I typically bench with my pinky on the ring, so I still have a reasonable distance to move out, which will take a reasonable amount of time to work out that wide.

Closer grip allows for more speed off the chest, but moving the width out slowly appears to have allowed me to get this back, so only time will tell.

Each rep will also be done with a short pause, as I need to learn this move in my movements.

MotoGP 2007 - Jerez

I was searching the updated photos of the Jerez round at MCNews.com.au and found this image of Rossi, which I thought was a fantastic representation of speed.

MotoGP 2007 - Jerez

Oh well, a picture is worth a 1000 words, or 25 points, depending on who you are.

Training 2007 - Planning

Since the beginning of the year, I have gone from a high of 120.1kg (265lbs) down to a low of 114.2kg (252lbs), not really much of a change, but its a change in the right direction, and down from a bit closer to 125kg last year.

In this time I have not really gained any strength, but I haven't lost any either. But that is not progressing me towards my goal any quicker.

I have started creatine again, which should bring me a small gain in performance, and put me within a few kilograms of my all time best, but that still is not bringing me to my best performance.

The weight loss is something that cannot stop, at least until I maintain a consistent 105-110kg (231-242lbs). So I need to have a program that will allow a consistent performance gain, especially a good bang for my buck.

The Sheiko program will be repeated, but I don't think doing it in the next few weeks will be suitable, because extreme volume, dieting and life stresses generally do not go hand in hand.

I have also been thinking about a couple of old style programs I performed, and actually gained reasonable well on.

The first one was simple periodization over 4-6 weeks.

I would train bench Monday and Friday, starting at 75-80% 1rm, and linearly increasing the load until I hit ~95/100% 1rm. I would then performed 85-90% 1rm for 3x3 on the Monday, and hit a PR load on Friday.

The reps I would do would be taken from Prileprins table, based upon the load used for that day. The amount of reps I would use would ultimately depend on the speed of the movement. If I was feeling slow, the reps would be low, if I was fast, the reps would be high. The bad days would mean I would do the minimum number of reps, and on the good days I would go higher.

A simple form of auto-regulation, but without the insane DB Hammer babble.

On the Wednesdays, I would perform speed work. This consisted of ballistic benching, with 20-35% 1rm, and plyometric/isometric pushups. I did 3-6 sets of the ballistic benching, for 2-4 reps. The plyometric work ended up being 3sets of 3 in the end.

The other program was adapted from a Christian Thibaudeau article, before he turned all Bbing weird.

It was a four week block, which went
These are the main days, with a similar speed workout done on the Wednesday. The reps are the figures off Prileprins table, showing first the range of reps, and the the range of desired reps.
The third week is a heavy week with wave loading frame, working in the 100+% 1rm range, which may or may not be feasible. I do remember working in the 97.5-100% range on this day though. Followed by a lighter week and a 1rm test.

I may play with these programs, later in the year. I think that it would be best to include some simple 2-3board work afterwards to enable some decent load work to be performed in the desired range.

MotoGP 2007 - Jerez

Haven't made much of a comment about the practice and qualifying sessions here.

Pedrosa is predictably fast, where as Stoner is somewhat back, as is Capriossi, who is having a tough time adapting to the new bike.

Honda is spending its time talking up Pedrosa, almost to the point of ignoring their current World Champion, Hayden. Seems a tad odd, but perhaps pressured by the fact that Pedrosa is at his home race.

Rossi is right up there, and after the morning warmup prior to the race, it all appears a tad strange. Stoner, Pedrosa etc are all back in the pack, and Melandri, Rossie, Edwards, Hayden and the Suzuki of John Hopkins are up the front.

It's going to be interesting, and somehow I think Rossi will be heading into the first corner with a real focus on who is around him.

Training - Video update

Video from todays training session

Training - Friday 23rd March 2007

Warmups
Bandpushdown: px12x3
Band row: px12x3
Band st arm pulldown: px12x3

Main Move
Bench: warmups, 180(396)x1, 200(440)x1, 210xno way, 180x4.5, 100x15

Notes
Not a good day, but have some points to work on for the next training. I am as strong as ever, just couldn't display it.

Training - Thursday 22nd March 2007

Supplementary
Walk kids to school: 20mins
Treadmill: 20mins
Facepulls: 54x12x4
Pushdowns: 54x12x3
Pulldown abs: 54x12x3

Notes
Carbs. That is all.

MotoGP 2007 - Jerez

The first European round of the MotoGP championships kicks off this weekend, in Jerez, Spain. Rossi had a poor showing last year, when he was punted off on the first corner. He did, however, have a fantastic test period here resulting in him winning a lovely little BMW.

Will Stoner perform? Will Pedrosa strike? Will Hayden make it to the top 3?

Only time will tell.

But it is a shame that the Old Man of the MotoGP circus, Jeremy McWilliams, is going to have to miss the race, or a number of races, due to the ill fated Ilmor's team deciding to quit racing until they have a sponsorship deal.

Training - Wednesday 21st March 2007

Supplementary
Treadmill: 15mins mod/hard
Cycle: 15mins inc 10:30x30sec sprints
Cycle: 20mins steady state

Notes
Cardio muck around day. Missed it yesterday because I decided to work from home rather than go in. The treadmill was fine but the sprints were hard with it being one level higher than normal. Did the 20mins afterwards at levels 5-7 and 90-100rpm. my sprints are level 10, 120rpm. So its somewhere around 70-80% of effort.

Training - Monday 19 March 2007

Warmups
Giant set: pushdowns, rows, pulldown abs, st arm pulldown: 66x12x3
Treadmill: 10mins

Main move
Bench: warmups, 157.5(347)x1x3

Accessory
Bench+doubled purples: warmups, 65(143)x3x3

Supplementary
Treadmill: 20mins moderate

Notes
OK day, used a crap bar for bench and my shoulders did not like it. Too many morons at the gym

Training - Friday 16th March 2007

Supplementary
Treadmill: 10mins moderate/hard
Db Rows: 57.5x12x2
Cycle: 23mins overall with 30:30x4x3 sprints

Notes
Cardio will make you feel healthy

not...

wanted to vomit following this session with 1 more sprint per set.

blurg

Training - Thursday 15th March 2007

Warmups
Giant set: Band pushdowns, band rows, band sidebends, band st arm pulldown: 2px12x3
Band pullaparts: px12x3

Main move
Bench: warmups, 147.5(325)x5, 177.5(391)x1x4

Accessory
Bench+doubled purples: warmups, 5(165)x3x3

Supplementary
Treadmill: 15mins moderate

Notes
Was an OK day. The bench technique improved as the sets went on, with the final set of 177.5 being the best. The speed benches were not great, but that's because of me being tentative with the lowering of the weight. It should be fast as possible, close to a free fall, but I was not able to do that until the last set.

MotoGP 2007 - Casey Stoner

Since the First round of MotoGP this year, the Motorcycle media have almost gone into a frenzy for the Australian Rider Casey Stoner.


His performance in the Qatar round was fantastic, with Stoner decimating the entire field with a fantastic ride, virtually leading from start to finish, and ultimately only being challenged by Rossi. But is it not a little premature to be piling on the platitude's about his overall performance or championship hopes?

It was only a month ago that the same media was waiting for Casey to throw his Ducati into the gravel, calling him a crasher, and ultimately, Casey proved them correct when he stacked the bike on the final day of testing.

Casey has been winning on and off for a few years now, achieving a win in his first year of the 125's, and another win in his second year. Moving up to the 250's he was thought of as a challenger for the championships against Honda's Dani Pedrosa. But like a lot of fast riders, Casey has a habit of making visits to the gravel, which to this date has been his downfall.

In his first season of MotoGP, on a machine that is nowhere near as brutal as the old 500's, he produced some fantastic rides, finishing second in his third race. However, by the Italian Gran Prix at Mugello, Casey started a trend of either not starting the round (Germany) or retired from the round (Italy, Spain, USA, Japan, Portugal and Spain). DNF's do not win a championship, just ask Rossi in 2006.

To win the championship in 2007, Stoner has to be consistently good, and to beat Rossi overall, he has to be consistently very good. Rossi finished last year in second place, achieving 5 less points than World Champion Nicky Hayden, but Rossi failed to finish three rounds vs Haydens one, and being punted back on the first corner of the first round did not help Rossi either.

Doohan has commented on Stoner being similar to Schwantz, and that "its easier to make a fast person not crash than get a slow person faster". I think the comparison to Schwantz is interesting. Kevin won a single world championship, in 1993, but it was not solely due to Kevin learning to be fast and not crash, as he only won 4 rounds, lower than the number of wins he achieve in 1989 (6 wins, ended up 5th in the championships due to DNF's), but the fact that the major competitor, Wayne Rainey, ended the championships in a wheelchair due to his career ending crash at Misano (at which time he had been leading the championship). Doohan was also still in recovery mode from his leg smashing crash at Assen in 1992.

Casey is facing a plethora of top racers, at the height of their game and in order to beat Rossi, Pedrosa (who has already beaten Stoner in the past) and the others, will require an absolute step change in performance from his previous years.

Ducati, however, have provided Stoner, and the remainder of his team mates, a bike that is capable of blowing the paint off anything in the MotoGP paddock. This is not really any different to other years, with Ducati typically occupying the top of the speed charts for most rounds, with the GP4 from 2004 producing the highest speed recorded by a MotoGP bike, 347.4kmh. The main issue with the Ducati seems to be handling, and consistency of handling, which is ultimately harder to fix than sheer horsepower.

Now the Yamaha of Rossi and Edwards appears to be beautiful handling, but ultimately underpowered. This is most apparent when in a race, and is something that I worried about when I saw the laptimes Rossi/Edwards achieved versus their absolute speed. When alone, such as qualifying, a laptime is a somewhat abstract concept, when smoothness, handling and all the factors combine to lower it to the maximum. Once in a race, things are not always smooth, and when balked, regaining the speed is easier on a powerful machine rather than a underpowered.

Going back to when the 500cc twins (Aprilia and Honda) were entered into championships showed this. The machines were underpowered, but light and could handle the corners like a 250cc racer. In qualifying, in the right hands, they produced some quick times, but in the race their handling/cornerspeed advantage was diminished due to the big 4cylinder machines getting in the way, so when it got to the straight, they had the power to dominate the straights.

In the first race, this is where the Rossi/Yamaha combination is sitting next to the Stoner/Ducati. Rossi passes on the corners where he has superior abilities, and Ducati blasts past on the straight, where the bike has superior abilities.

So what happens when the other manufacturers come back with more power?

Personally, I think I agree with Alex Edge at motorcycledaily.com, with the comments that if the power differential is worked out by the other manufacturers (and I wouldn't discount them) that

...the question is, how will Stoner respond? There seem to be two possible options. One is that the young Australian, with his newfound race-winning confidence, will push his Ducati to its limits, and beyond, in an attempt to return to that coveted top step of the podium. There's a good chance he'll succeed, but the downside of Stoner's riding at his very limit (as he will be forced to do if the competition's machinery becomes more equal to his) is the fact that he's sometimes not quite sure where that limit is...

Now I hope that Stoner gets pushed to his best, and pushes the remainder of the field to their best. But he will be extremely aware that a lot of the advantage he had over Rossi was power, and that Rossi pushed him through 21 of the 22 laps before he relaxed. It wasn't just Stoner who ran away from the entire field, there was also a Seven time world champion.

It's going to be an interesting year.

Prime TV

Rant...

Prime TV (New Zealand) is a national free to air TV channel, broadcasting on UHF and through Sky TV.

For a couple of years now, Prime has been the sole local television station that has been broadcasting MotoGP, mainly at god-awful hours in the morning, but thats what happens with stuff from the other side of the world.

At the begining of 2006, Prime was purchased by Sky TV, the local Pay TV provider, and in doing so, obviously have controlling rights over MotoGP broadcasting in New Zealand.

Strangely, MotoGP no longer appears to be being broadcast on free to air TV, other than highlights on BP Ultimate Sports Sunday.

But strangely, its being broadcast on Sky Sports2, which would cost $99 installation and $46.61 per month base fee, and $15.14 per month for the sports channel. So the chance to watch the MotoGP live on television would cost me approximately $500 a year to watch 18hour of racing.

If I had $500 to waste on Sky, I still wouldn't, as it is a pathetically overpriced system, which I cant even record because of stupid DRM garbage.

I can purchase a 35€ subscription to the Official MotoGP website, that includes videos, and the ability to view the entire race. Or if I was willing to spend a little more at 99.95€, I can get high resolution footage of the MotoGP, including a replay of the entire round.

Sure that's around $300 for the year, and I don't get pointless channels like I would on Sky, but the products you get is somewhat more in depth and quality.

Check out the MotoGP Pay site

Training - Tuesday 13th March 2007

Supplementary
Treadmill: 20mins mod/hard
Single leg - Leg press: warmups, 120x5, 140x5x2
Single arm cable row: warmups, 48x5, 60x5, 66x6x2
Standing leg curl: 30x5, 42x5x2
Cycle: 16mins overall with 30:30x3x3 sprints
Treadmill: 4mins light

Notes
Tapering off the other work this week. Cardio was hard cos the weather is packing in, and humidity was sitting around 95% - so sweating wasn't an option.

Training - Monday 12th March 2007

Warmups
Giant set: Pushdowns, rows, pulldown abs, st arm pulldowns: 2px12x3

Main move
Bench: warmups, 157.5(347)x2x2, 167.5(369)x1x3, 177.5(391)x1x3

Supplementary
Overhead shrug: 50x12, 60x12, 70x12
Medball pushups: 1ballx8x4, 2balls x8x2
Treadmill: 20mins moderate

Notes
Felt tired today, not enough sleep over the weekend meant my shoulders were not really recovered from the bands. Weights were ok, technique was a little off but not by much. Scap stability stuff was ok, basically I had med balls under my hands when performing pushups. For the first sets I used one, meaning one ball under a hand and the other on the ground. On the final sets I used an individual ball under each hand. Weird.

MotoGP 2007 - Qatar

Motorcycle News from Australia has a nice text commentary of the race explaining what actually happened.

By the sounds of it, Rossi has a bike that is phenominal, except Ducati has a bike that is pretty good, as well as more speed. It will be interesting to see where everything falls in a fortnight, when the circus makes it way back to Jerez.

MotoGP 2007 - Qatar

Well, I am sitting here "watching" the race on the MotoGP Live Timing, off the www.motogp.com webpage, as Qatar is not too far out of NZ time.

Ducati, and Stoner definitely has the fastest bike in the field, it is constantly topping 310kmh, where as the likes of Rossi struggles to get past 300kmh. Sure, the difference may not seem like much, but standing still and having somebody go past you at 10kmh shows the sorta difference they are experiencing. Whether this top-end is matched by a drag out of the corner, I am not sure, but obviously Stoner is not struggling, even if Capriossi has left the field for some reason (hard to tell from laptimes/positions listed on the screen).

It wasnt until the second half of the race that the riders got into the 1minute 56second laptimes, or at least Stoner and Rossi, with Pedrosa in third putting in nearly a 58second laptime. Edwards obviously fell back from the start, and has taken some time to get up to speed, but is still 4seconds back from Hopkins.

Speaking of Hopkins, how the hell can he perfom so well with the injuries he is still suffering from his crash earlier in the pre-season.

Now its at the 16th lap, and the two troublemakers at the front have hauled out over four seconds on third placed Pedrosa, followed by Hopkins and then Edwards even further back.

19th lap... Rossi pulls up to within 0.061 seconds of Stoner, and back from there its six seconds beore anyone. Hopefully Stoner doesn't stack it... but his speed through the traps was 314kmh, against Rossi's 294kmh... 20kmh is a huge difference.

20th, Stoner pulls back a few bits of a second

21st - Stoner once again pulls a few more precious fractions

Now the Live Timing has had a hernia at the last minute and I can only see the 7th place and below, mother...

Logged out, logged back in

Race over

Stoner
Rossi
Pedrosa
Hopkins
Melandri
Edwards
Vermulin
Hayden
Barros
Nakano

MotoGP 2007 - Qatar

Rossi leads the way for qualifying, I wonder if he will repeat what he achieved in 2002, when he became the first winner of a MotoGP round on a 990cc 4stroke (as well as the last 500cc winner).

The first race of the 2007 MotoGP World Championship season takes place tomorrow in Qatar, with the riders today attempting to secure a good start in qualifying. Conditions at the Losail International Circuit were near perfect for riding, with a comfortable heat and little wind to contend with.

Valentino Rossi will begin his attempt to regain the MotoGP world title from pole position tomorrow, after a scorching lap at the end of the MotoGP session. The Italian put an incredible 1’55.002 lap on the board, edging out last year’s poleman Casey Stoner by five thousandths of a second and smashing his pole record time of 1’55.683. It is Rossi's 46th career pole, and an ideal start to the 800cc era for the Italian.

After fast times yesterday and this morning, Colin Edwards set the pace early on, before eventually taking the final spot on the front row. Toni Elias, Dani Pedrosa and John Hopkins completed the top six, the latter surprising many with his great ride at less than 100% fitness. Loris Capirossi will start from the head of row three tomorrow, holding off Randy de Puniet and reigning World Champion Nicky Hayden.

Elias, Capirossi and Marco Melandri were amongst the riders to take a trip onto the gravel during the session, whilst there were crashes for Shinya Nakano and Jeremy McWilliams. The Ilmor GP rider will be in action tomorrow, having been examined for further damage to his injured leg.

Jorge Lorenzo, the reigning 250cc World Champion out to retain his crown this season, will begin his title defence from the front spot at the Commercialbank Grand Prix Of Qatar. The Spaniard led the way at the final qualifying session for tomorrow’s race, just over three tenths of a second faster than former team-mate Hector Barbera with a lap of 1’59.432.

The duo will be joined on the front row by the Aspar team duo of Alex de Angelis and Alvaro Bautista, with the 125cc World Champion and previous winner in the category at Losail starting his first quarter litre race tomorrow.

Fellow 250cc debutant Thomas Luthi rounded off an all-Aprilia top five, ahead of KTM rider Hiroshi Aoyama, Andrea Dovizioso and Mika Kallio. Yuki Takahashi and Julian Simon, two riders coming back from leg and shoulder injuries respectively, completed the top ten.

In today’s final 125cc qualifying practice, Gabor Talmacsi took the first pole position of the 2007 season. The Hungarian’s hot lap came right at the end of the session, a time of 2’06.011 putting him ahead of Aspar team-mate Hector Faubel by less than one tenth of a second. Mattia Pasini, last year also a member of the Aspar team and now riding for Polaris World, was also close to the pole-setting lap, and starts from a front row completed by Derbi rider Lukas Pesek.

Raffaele de Rosa, Sergio Gadea, Tomoyoshi Koyama and Esteve Rabat completed the top eight, with the latter qualifying faster than new team-mate Bradley Smith on his first attempt. The Briton himself had an impressive session, knocking a second off his first qualifying time to qualify ninth in a top ten rounded off by Simone Corsi.

Training - Friday 9th March 2007

Supplementary
Treadmill: 15mins mod/hard
Neutral facepulls: warmups, 66x12x6
Single arm machine row: stackx10x3
Pulldown row: stackx8x4
Hammer curls: 13.5x8, 23.5x5, 25.5x5, 28.5x5
Cycle: 15-20mins overall with 30:30x3x3 sprints
Treadmill: 5mins

Notes
Light backwork, and the cycle murdered me today, but I am the lightest I have been this year, so I am slightly depleted.

Training - 8th March 2007

Warmups
Giant set: Band pushdowns, band rows, band sidebends, band st arm pulldown: 2px12x3

Main move
Bench: warmups, 147.5(325)x5, 177.5(391)x3x2, 187.5(413)x2

Accessory
Bench+doubled purples: warmups, 65(143)x3x6

Supplementary
Treadmill: 20mins moderate

Notes
Tired today, didn't really feel all that great. The technique was very off for the first 177.5 set, and then OK for the second. The first 187.5 was easy, the second I placed too low and it got me all bent outta shape, worked through this and destroyed the lockout.
The speed work with doubled purples hammered my shoulders.

MotoGP 2007

So we have a sponsor...

Yamaha confirmed a two year deal with Fiat for the main sponsorship of Edwards and Rossi's Yamaha M1 team. The major sticking point was an additional contract to allow the use of Rossi's image in promotional material for Fiat, which would be a major thing in Rossi's home country.

Team director Davide Brivio added: "It's nice to be able to finally unveil our new livery and our new sponsorship with Fiat. It's a new start for us - a new bike, a new sponsor and a new challenge as we try to win back the title.

"It's been a long pre-season for us but we're finally ready for the first race this week; let's hope we can mark our first outing in Fiat Yamaha Team colours in victorious style!"

Victorious Indeed, maybe they should have signed early so Fiat would have had some promotional material from the Jerez fun.

Oh, and of course, Rossi keeps some Neon Yellow on his suit.

Training - Tuesday 6th March 2007

Warmups
Treadmill: 15mins, moderate
Giant set: pushdowns, facepull, pulldown ab, st arm pulldown: 66x12x3

Supplementary
Chins: 0x8
Single leg leg press: warmups, 120x8x4
Db Row: 57.5x8x4
MS Single Leg Curl: 24x12
MS Single Leg ext: 48x12
MS Standing leg curl: 30x12
Treadmill: 20mins, light

Notes
Nothing major today, feeling moderately strong tho... and magnesium helps my sleep patterns.

Digital Rights (mis-)Management

I used to record a number of TV shows with my trusty old VHS recorder. In getting with the times, I spent some $$ and purchased a simple 160gb Digital Video recorder (DVR), or DVD/HDD recorder.

Now, I understand this product has Digital Rights Management (DRM) systems within the product to limit any attempts at piracy, but frustration started last night.

I often watch a C4 Show called "U Choose 40", which allows users to vote for their favourite song within a set theme. Last week I recorded the show entitled "Best comedy Videos", which included a large number of Weird Al Yankovich songs.

Last night, they had one entitled "Men with make-up", which included a number of older hair-bands and a lot of goth/emo style music as well. I pressed record and carried on my merry way preparing food for the coming week.

I ended up being finished around 11.45, so I thought I would stop the recorder and head off to bed. When I pressed the button, the magic recorder puts up an error on the screen that stated that there was copy protected information during this broadcast and it cannot complete the recording.

I can record any new show I try, I have recorded this show in the past, but suddenly on this particular night, my ability to view the show is denied due to copy protection. I'm guessing its due to some of the songs utilized during this broadcast were commercial DVD/VHS recordings containing the Macrovision content protection system.

Now, I understand the concept of DRM, but ultimately, especially in the point of live to air television, what role does it play? If I had used my VHS recorder to copy this, I would have just sat down and viewed the program, but because I used a DVR, I am left with nothing but frustration towards it all.

It doesn't prevent piracy, all it does is piss me off, and makes a show I enjoy watching, less attractive, and if it continues, losing C4 a relatively faithful viewer.

Oh, and potentially drive me to purchase/make a Stabilizer.

Training - Monday 5th March 2007

Warmups
Giant set: Band pushdowns, band rows, band pulldown ab, band st arm pulldown: gx12x3

Main move
Bench: warmups, 147.5(325)x1x2, 167.5(369)x1, 187.5(413)x1, 197.5(435)x1x2

Supplementary
Treadmill: 10mins hard
Stretch

Notes
Load increasing, technique is feeling very good and lockout is strong. My wrap undid itself on my second 435, but I completed the rep anyway. Once the speed off the chest picks up, it will be far better.

Research Watch

The paper I want to comment on today, I haven't completely absorbed, but its more of a commentary about the media rather than anything else.

On TVOne's Breakfast Show, they have a Health Correspondent, Lorelei Mason. As can be seen from TVNZ's profile of Lorelei, she is a reporter, which is fine, but not medically, or more specifically research trained.

This became totally apparent when she reported (video available here) on the paper below.

References
Bjelakovic G, Nikolova D, Gluud LL, Simonetti RG, Gluud C. Mortality in Randomized Trials of Antioxidant Supplements for Primary and Secondary Prevention: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA. 2007;297(8):842-857

Abstract
CONTEXT: Antioxidant supplements are used for prevention of several diseases. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of antioxidant supplements on mortality in randomized primary and secondary prevention trials. Data Sources and Trial Selection We searched electronic databases and bibliographies published by October 2005. All randomized trials involving adults comparing beta carotene, vitamin A, vitamin C (ascorbic acid), vitamin E, and selenium either singly or combined vs placebo or vs no intervention were included in our analysis. Randomization, blinding, and follow-up were considered markers of bias in the included trials. The effect of antioxidant supplements on all-cause mortality was analyzed with random-effects meta-analyses and reported as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Meta-regression was used to assess the effect of covariates across the trials. DATA EXTRACTION: We included 68 randomized trials with 232 606 participants (385 publications). DATA SYNTHESIS: When all low- and high-bias risk trials of antioxidant supplements were pooled together there was no significant effect on mortality (RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.98-1.06). Multivariate meta-regression analyses showed that low-bias risk trials (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29) and selenium (RR, 0.998; 95% CI, 0.997-0.9995) were significantly associated with mortality. In 47 low-bias trials with 180 938 participants, the antioxidant supplements significantly increased mortality (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08). In low-bias risk trials, after exclusion of selenium trials, beta carotene (RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11), vitamin A (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.24), and vitamin E (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07), singly or combined, significantly increased mortality. Vitamin C and selenium had no significant effect on mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with beta carotene, vitamin A, and vitamin E may increase mortality. The potential roles of vitamin C and selenium on mortality need further study.

My Thoughts
In the news piece, Lorelei comments "As always with these studies, the devil is in the detail. Uhh, what they did, it's called an epidemiological study. Which is a big word for saying what these researchers did is not look at a whole lot of new people in new trials, they took 68 trials, which involved 230 thousand people, and they looked at those people's, uhh, data that hadn't perhaps been exposed, umm, in those trials... ...and worked out the vitamin intake of these people, um, who later went on to die and from that they extrapolated, if you like, the data they got, to show if you take Vitamin A, you got a 16% higher death risk, um, if you take too much of it of course, and this is what I am saying about the detail, um, vitamin Beta-carotene 7% and Vitamin E, which surprised some, a 4% increase..."

She went on to attempt to pick apart the trial due to the inclusion of asbestosis sufferers (One trial, Lorelei made it sound like a large number).

The trial was a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials, not epidemiology. While Meta-analyses have been termed the epidemiology of controlled research, this is not the same as the common usage of the term epidemiology, which is usually limited to large scale observational trials, case-control, cohorts, surveys etc.

The meta-analysis collected 16'111 references from five research databases, Central, Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the very basic - reading bibliographies. Due to a very specific selection process, this number was reduced to a total of 68 trials that met the requirements, with 14,003 references removed due to reference duplication (multiple databases will find the same reference and this added up to a large, but not unreasonable number).

These trials involved supplementation with single or combined antioxidant supplementation, at different doses from each other.

The researchers performed multiple statistical regression analysis, but this is not "extrapolated", but the use of this term was an interesting way of weakening the results of this trial to the audience, which is a recurrent theme through the presentation.

When looking at the low biased (high quality) studies the researchers found a small, significant increase in risk of death with three of the antioxidants, Vitamin A, E and Beta-Carotene, as mentioned above.

Performing a meta-regression, there was an extremely small, significant, effect of dose on risk from beta-carotene (RR,1.004 ;95%CI,1.001-1.007; P=.012), an even smaller effect of dose on risk from Vitamin A (RR,1.000006;95%CI, 1.000002-1.000009; P=.003), no effect of dose on Vitamin E risk, and a small reduced risk of dose of selenium (RR,0.998;95%CI,0.997-0.999;P=.002).

Interestingly, in the news reports that are presented on the Breakfast show every half hour, Professor Jim Mann of Otago University presented a more favourable view of the meta-analysis than Lorelei. Maybe because he has more of a background understanding research in this area?

Sure, meta-analyses are not perfect, but they are currently the best tool we have to pick out an effect of diet/treatment on disease risk. The overall analysis is ultimately only as good as the research under the covers, and a large proportion of these trials are performed on older or sick individuals.

Ultimately it points to couple of things. Large supplemental (and in reality food based) doses of Vitamin A may not be the best thing for your mortality risk. Beta-Carotene is an interesting one, but the increase in risk is small, 7% (range 2-11%). Vitamin E is the most interesting one, with a number of the trials pointing towards supplemental Vitamin E increasing risk of death, where observational trails generally show a reduced risk from (food sourced) Vitamin E.

The Vitamin manufacturers were quick to point out that the type of Vitamin E used in these trials is alpha-tocopherol, which is only one of the eight isomers found in food, and they typically questioned the natural/synthetic concept. But strangely, a lot of the supplement industry keep selling products containing these exact mixtures, and making claims with these.

Training - Friday 2nd March 2007

Warmups
Gaint set: Pushdown, Row, Db sidebend(both sides), St arm pulldown: 66x12x3

Supplementary
Chins: 0x5x2, 10x3
Pendlay Row: warmups, 150(330)x3x2
Machine row (single arm): stackx12x3
Sully Zotmans: 13.5x5, 20x5x2
Treadmill: 20mins, hard/light

Notes
I didn't bother with legs because I'm feeling a low-carb URTI coming on. Back felt pumped, but I trained late and the gym was full 'o' gymtards

Training - March 1st 2007

Warmups
Giant set: band pushdown, band row, band alternate ab, band st arm pulldown: gx12x3

Main move
Bench: warmups, 177.5(391)x3x4

Accessory
Closegrip: 165(363)x5
Closegrip+GuB:140(308)x5, 150(330)x5x2

Supplementary
Band Traction
Treadmill: 25mins light

Notes
Forgot my bag with my wraps, elbow sleeves and chalk, so today was a pain, literally. Hands ached during the movement (wraps support them), wrists and elbows ache now, and chalk just stops my hands moving on the bar like they did.
Weights on the bench were good, that's a RepxSet PR. Technique has come in, the third set was the best for this, good drive off the chest, strong lockout. Technique for closegrip is falling away, which is what should be happening.
As I go into next week, total volume gets almost halved, intensity goes up and exercise selection is one of two things, bench and 'speed' bench.